The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers meet in Vienna on Thursday and Friday.
OPEC and allied oil producers will consider deepening their existing oil supply reduction deal by about 400,000 barrels per day to 1.6 million bpd, Iraq's oil minister said on Sunday.
On Friday, prices plunged partly because the hopes of a bullish outcome from the meeting had faded after reports that Russia's energy minister signaled that Russian Federation is likely to request a change to the current agreement among OPEC+ to curb output in an effort to boost crude oil prices. The January contract expired Friday after dropping 2.3%.
Ghadhban added that Iraq, as of Sunday, has exceeded 100 percent commitment with the supply deal and that an agreement capping production from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region will also aid compliance. But all is not well in the OPEC+ union as the price gains garnered from the production-cut agreement haven't been enough to stave off serious social unrest in the more challenged members, they wrote. Banks have warned that oil may slump to less than $50 a barrel without deeper production cutbacks, Bloomberg reported. The Monday data showed Moscow was producing on average 64,000 bpd more than it should under the global deal.
According to the OPEC monthly oil market report of November 2019, OECD commercial oil stocks stand at 28.2 million barrels above the latest five-year average.
However, ahead of an Aramco IPO final pricing on December 5th, same day the OPEC members and their Russia-led allies would meet to decide on whether to extend output curb until June 30th, the Russ push would likely to get rejected, suggested industry analysts.
"All eyes are on OPEC this week", Innes said.
OPEC oil output fell in November as Angolan production slipped due to maintenance and Saudi Arabia kept a lid on supply to support prices before the initial public offering of state-owned Saudi Aramco, a Reuters survey found. About 250,000 bpd of the KRG's output will be handed over to the central Iraqi government and 200,000 bpd will be used by the region to pay back debt to foreign companies, he added.