In a more "severe but realistic" scenario of three per cent, ICU occupancy could hit 1,000.
Last week, the government said they hoped to vaccinate all long-term care residents, health-care workers and essential caregivers in the province's four COVID-19 hot spots by January 21, with retired General Rick Hillier, who is leading the vaccine task force, hinting that he thinks they could complete the task earlier.
He added that doctors will soon be faced with deciding which patients will receive care and which will not if there is not a "significant" drop in contacts between people. "There will be choices about who will get the care they need and who will not". Forecasts suggest more deaths in wave 2 in longterm care than in wave 1.
This means the province has declared a second provincial emergency as defined in the Emergency Management and Civil Protection Act (EMPCA).
Since the implementation of the Provincewide Shutdown over two weeks ago, the latest modelling trends in key public health indicators have continued to worsen, forecasting an overwhelming of the health system unless drastic action is taken.
Currently, the number of Ontarians infected with COVID-19 doubles every 35-40 days.
Health officials say it's the first time since October that fewer than 100 new cases have been registered.
When asked how the stay at home order differs from a curfew, like the one implemented in Quebec, Ford said he has never been in favour of a curfew and doesn't want to lose the trust of Ontarians.
Non-essential construction is further restricted, including below-grade construction, exempting survey.
Brown warned that the new COVID-19 variant from Britain was already in Ontario and could decrease the doubling time of cases - or how long it takes for case counts to double, now 30 to 40 days - to 10 days. "By strictly adhering to all public health and workplace safety measures, we can reduce the transmission of COVID-19 and keep our loved ones and our communities safe". By January 20, Ontario's medical officer of health will advise the Ministry of Education on schools in the remaining public health units that will be permitted to resume in-person instruction. "Over 44,800 tests were completed yesterday", Health Minister Christine Elliott said on Twitter.
Ontario is reporting 8,859 new vaccinations administered for a total of 122,105 doses given. Note that some provinces report weekly, while others report same-day or figures from the previous day.
The province is also reporting 41 more deaths linked to the virus.
Health officials say the deaths involve one person in their 70s and one in their 80s who were residents of a retirement facility in Saint John.
There are now 261 long-term care homes in the province experiencing an outbreak.
During a Zoom call with her grandmother after she contracted COVID-19, Bains said another female resident entered the room and began hugging and kissing the elderly woman on the forehead.
The seven-day average for new cases is now 3,523, which is up from 2,646 at the same time last week.
And while the COVID-19 vaccine has started to be administered across the province, Ford said the province is still months away from mass immunizations.