And if we go into full-on lockdown, only hanging out with those we live with and only leaving the house for essential trips to get groceries and other necessities, go to medical appointments and exercise, we could see new daily case counts fall below the point they're at now, into the low thousands.
If socialization increases, the projections indicate that as 2020 draws to a close, Canada could see twelvefold increase from the current level of around 5,000 cases per day.
Officials predict that by November 30 the total death toll could be between 11,870 and 12,120, with the total cases between 366,500 and 378,600.
Data in the long-term forecast, which shows how the epidemic could evolve over the next two months, indicates that a stronger response is needed to slow the spread of COVID-19 in Canada.
However, Tam also suggested she does not believe Canada is on that trajectory at the moment and can still avoid it. That safer path requires that Canadians significantly reduce the number of people they come into contact with each day.
Njoo said it's like trying to strike a kind of "social and moral contract" with people to limit their contacts in order to celebrate together, but both he and Tam stressed the need for people to strictly limit contacts, movements and travel.
"To date, there are about 52,000 active cases in Canada, and despite having over 315,000 cumulative cases, less than one per cent of the population across the country has tested positive for COVID-19 to date", Tam said Friday.
The Chief Public Health officer notes many outbreaks are linked to social gatherings of families and friends were restrictions are not adhered to. Those aged 80 years and older now have the highest incidence rate nationally.
The severity of the second wave of COVID-19 is becoming clearer from Canada's Chief Public Health officer.
"There is an urgency to quickly bring infection rates down across the country", Tam said.
Canada is seeing a massive spike in COVID-19 cases which could overwhelm the hospital system, an emotional Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Friday, imploring Canadians to stay home as much as possible.