According to ETR, Portugal is among the countries facing fewer ecological threats and with higher levels of resilience to deal with the risks.
A total of 5bn people could suffer from food insecurity by 2050, according to the report, 1.5bn more than today. The research revealed that nearly 1.2 billion people are living in areas vulnerable like sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East.
By the year 2050, more than a billion people all around the world stand the risk of getting displaced due to climate crisis and rapid population growth.
Food insecurity is also another key concern listed in the analysis, which found that 3.5 billion people could suffer from food insecurity by 2050, compared to 1.5 billion people now.
More than a billion people are at risk of being displaced by 2050 due to rapid population growth, shortage of food and water and increased exposure to natural disasters, which could lead to increased migration flows to Europe, according to a new report by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP).
Based on resource scarcity and natural disaster threats, the ETR identifies "clusters of ecological hotspots" that "are particularly susceptible to collapse": the Sahel-Horn belt of Africa, from Mauritania to Somalia; the Southern African belt, from Angola to Madagascar; and the Middle East and Central Asian belt, from Syria to Pakistan. The European refugee crisis in the wake of wars in Syria and Iraq in 2015 saw two million people flee to Europe, and the analysis warns that political unrest and the climate crises will fuel more movements of refugees over the coming decades. The report notes that "the majority of the countries in Europe and South America will face lower levels of ecological threats, because of low population growth".
The report found that 141 countries would be exposed to at least one ecological threat by 2050. "Over the next 30 years lack of access to food and water will only increase without urgent global cooperation. In the absence of action, civil unrest, riots and conflict will most likely increase", he further said.
"Aid budgets will be hard in the next few years with the implosion of economies due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but there needs to be a rethinking to what is in a country's strategic interest", Killelea concluded.
The world population is forecast to reach almost 10 billion by 2050, putting further pressure on scarce resources and fuelling conflict, and the Ecological Threat Register shows that as many as 1.2 billion people living in vulnerable areas of Sub-Saharan and North Africa, South Asia and the Middle East may be forced to migrate by 2050. At the moment, only 1% of people are displaced and most seek refuge in a neighboring country.
The report's release comes not only amid a pandemic that has infected more than 27.6 million people and killed almost 900,000 around the world, but also as communities are enduring the devastating impacts of human-caused global heating, such as the heatwave and wildfires that are tearing through the western United States. This number is expected to increase to 3.5 billion people by 2050 which is likely to affect global reslience.
The five most food insecure countries are Sierra Leone, Liberia, Niger, Malawi and Lesotho, where more than half of the population experience uncertainty in access to sufficient food to be healthy. COVID-19 has exacerbated levels of food insecurity and given rise to substantial price increases, highlighting potential volatility caused by future ecological change.
However, among these countries with high income and peace levels, Portugal is one of the 10 with the highest proportion of the population having difficulty buying food. Undernourishment in developed countries is a byproduct of poverty; Colombia, Slovakia and Mexico have the highest undernourishment rates of OECD countries. It produces yearly terrorism and peace indexes.
While climate-related state aid has increased 34-fold from $1m 20 years ago to $34bn, most is spent in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Asia-Pacific.
Some countries like India and China are most endangered by water scarcity. Given the past increases in water-related conflict this is likely to drive further tension and reduce global resilience.
The analysis finds that Asia Pacific has had the most deaths from natural disasters since 1990 with more than 581,000. In Europe, flooding is recorded as the most common natural disaster, accounting for 35 per cent of recorded disasters in the region.