If global warming is to be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as recommended by the Paris Agreement, scientists say efforts to reverse economic damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic must include climate policy measures, according to a study published Friday.
Even assuming travel restrictions and social distancing continue till the end of next year, the team concluded this would save only 0.01 deg C of warming by 2030.
Leeds researchers say that if governments choose a strong green stimulus route out of the pandemic it could halve temperature rises expected by 2050 giving the world a chance to keep increases below the maximum 2.7F goal.
This is despite the sudden reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants, seen when many industries stopped and people stopped driving and flying during lockdown, having a negligible effect on rising global temperatures.
The team's findings show that carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides and other emissions fell by between 10-30 per cent globally - but it only had a tiny impact long-term.
That gives the world a good chance of keeping temperature rises to the 1.5C goal that countries signed up to under the worldwide Paris climate agreement to prevent the most unsafe impacts of global warming. "This could mean the difference between success and failure when it comes to avoiding risky climate change".
"The study also highlights the opportunities in lowering traffic pollution by encouraging low emissions vehicles, public transport and cycle lanes", said Piers, director of the Priestley International Center for Climate at Leeds.
He added: "The choices made now could give us a strong chance of avoiding 0.3˚C of additional warming by mid-century, halving the expected warming under current policies".
Study co-author Corinne Le Quéré from the University of East Anglia pointed to "government responses [that] could be a turning point if they focus on a green recovery, helping to avoid severe impacts from climate change".Читайте также: Zoë Kravitz Calls Out Hulu for Lack of Diverse Shows After ‘High Fidelity’ Cancellation
The team also modelled options for post-lockdown action, ranging from a fossil-fuelled recovery to two different levels of green stimulus.
The data, recorded between February and June, showed behavior shifts and reductions in economic activity have resulted in a 10 to 30 percent reduction in CO2, nitrogen oxides and other pollutants.
However, the global study, led by the University of Leeds and supported by Imperial College London's Dr Joeri Rogelj, estimates that including policies to cut greenhouse gas emissions as part of an economic recovery plan that prioritises growth in low-carbon industries and jobs could prevent more than half of the warming expected by 2050 under current policies.
"The better air quality will immediately have important health effects - and it will immediately start cooling the climate", he said.
'Through ingenious use of mobility data from Google and Apple (and presumably an bad lot of home-based data crunching by the research team) this study gives the clearest picture yet on how Covid has impacted global emissions'.
Strong action to drive the recovery through green measures could lead to greenhouse gas emissions being 50 per cent lower in 2030 than they would otherwise be, which would reduce expected warming by 0.54F by 2050.
Under the 2015 Paris climate deal, almost 200 nations agreed to limit temperature rises to "well below" 2 deg C above pre-industrial levels through sweeping emissions cuts.
Study co-author Harriet Forster, who has just completed her studies at Queen Margaret's School in York, said: "Our paper shows that the actual effect of lockdown on the climate is small".При любом использовании материалов сайта и дочерних проектов, гиперссылка на обязательна.
«» 2007 - 2020 Copyright.
Автоматизированное извлечение информации сайта запрещено.
Код для вставки в блог