The IEA also sees a big rise in oil production this year, including "explosive growth" in the US With the pickup in non-Opec supply exceeding the increase in demand, it sees the world's need for Opec production falling by around 600,000 barrels a day compared with last year, to a level below last month's output. Growing signs of a tightening market after a three-year rout have bolstered confidence that fuel prices can be sustained near current levels.
A slump in new production outside the US shale patch in 2019 could help to send Brent crude briefly back above $100 a barrel next year.... "OPEC's compliance to the deal has been excellent".
Kuwait's oil minister Bakheet al-Rashidi said Sunday's meeting focused on compliance with the current agreement on output cuts, and discussion of the deal's future was expected to occur in June, when OPEC and other producers led by Russian Federation are next scheduled to meet on oil policy.
All has been well in the global oil market lately. Ministers will need to see how the market develops before deciding if there's a need to adjust caps on production, he told reporters earlier.
US Distillate stocks also fell by 3.9 mbs, while gasoline stocks rose by 3.6 mbs. The longer we wait to reach that target, the more the running five-year average increases and represents bloated inventories. While benchmark Brent crude has gained 2.6 percent this month, U.S. oil output is set for strong growth this year as prices rally, the International Energy Agency said on Friday. Oman is in favor of a new type of deal, he said without elaborating. At this rate of weekly growth, USA drillers could hit the 10-million-bpd mark much sooner than expected unless they deliberately decide to rein in production to stop prices from falling. The forecasts have projected US sanctions could threaten several hundred thousand barrels per day of Iranian oil production, but unilateral action from Washington won't be as effective as the coordinated worldwide sanctions from years ago.
In 2016, the nation saw a resurgence of militant attacks on oil and gas facilities in the Niger Delta, causing oil production to plummet to near 30-year lows of around 1.6 million bpd in August.
Meantime, oil production in Venezuela has jumped to almost 1.9 million barrels per day, suggesting the Latin American nation's output recovers despite a lack of access to global credit markets.
While less significant than demand, supply side influences have still been an important driver, explaining the remaining one third of the change in oil prices according to the NYFed model.